I’m a great believer in the US stock market. The global market to a lesser degree, because they’re all newer, and there’s more uncontrolled external factors like regulation, corruption and war.
People I know in professional circles tend to be naturally pessimistic about the market.
Yes, markets crash. They’ve always crashed, and they’ve always returned.
For the market to crash to zero, you’d have to say: “There is no value left in anything in the market.” This will never happen. There will always be a floor, where someone with cash under their mattress will begin buying again.
The stock market always rebounds. It always has.
The challenge is knowing when exactly!
I bought in to the stock market in June 2018. The market was steady aand grew for a couple of months.
And then… it crashed, spectacularly, falling 20% from its peak.
In October 2018, the Dow topped 26,500, and was approaching 27,000.
By mid December it was below 22,000!
But I remembered what I always believe: the stock market rebounds.
I posted this on LinkedIn:
Just to show this wasn’t a total act of hubris, here’s the chart since then.
In fact, since i posted this, the market has recovered almost entirely. The Dow is back around 26,500.
So do I sell, knowing another crash is imminent? Or hold on to it?
I don’t think I’m going to worry about it.